(Update: See Republicans Sneak Massive Medicare Cuts Into Their Horrid Tax Bill by Hafiz Rashid at The New Republic.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued a report Tuesday finding that the GOP’s budget bill would automatically trigger over $500 billion in automatic cuts to Medicare, exposing President Trump for lying that Medicare wouldn’t be touched. The CBO estimates that there would be about $45 billion in cuts in 2026, and $490 billion in cuts between 2027 and 2034.
That’s MEDICARE, folks. Are they insane?)
The Mega-Bill of Evil is not yet ready to be voted on in the full House, I understand. This is from the Washington Post:
But the GOP’s narrow majority is far from unified around the proposal. And although Trump visited the U.S. Capitol for a conservative pep rally Tuesday, warring Republican factions on both sides dug in to oppose what is now officially called the One Big Beautiful Bill. The House GOP’s narrow majority means leaders can afford to lose only a handful of votes — and for now, they don’t have the support they need to pass the measure.
In brief, I take it they are mostly still fighting over Medicaid, with some hard-liners holding out for even bigger cuts, and raising the SALT cap, which some refuse to allow because it is more popular in blue states, although it would apply to all states. Trump’s visit to Capitol Hill yesterday didn’t accomplish anything, apparently.
I still question whether this beast can ever make it to the finish line. IMO eventually they’re going to have to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded, and even then they may have to break the bill up into pieces.
I understand Trump wants it all in one big bill so he can call it a reconciliation bill, which per Senate rules can’t be filibustered and can get through the Senate on an expedited schedule. However, reconciliation bills are supposed to be narrow in scope, and this bill contains half the planet’s kitchen sinks. There are Senate rules that would allow senators to strip out “extraneous” provisions. And it’s possible the Senate Parliamentarian will decide it doesn’t qualify for reconciliation. So even if this behemoth makes it to the Senate it might still be broken up into pieces.
But it’s really, really bad. This is in the New York Times (gift article) — U.S. Debt Is on Pace to Set a Record High, Going All the Way Back to 1790. Basically, if this thing goes through, it’s estimated that by 2032 or so the national debt will be about 118 percent of the nation’s entire economy. And yet for all the deficit spending we’re not providing the basics of government benefits for citizens one would expect from a first-world democracy, or for maintenance — for national parks, for example. The deficit is going to tax cuts for the wealthy and increased military spending for stuff that’s probably not going to work.
And all the increased military spending won’t do a damn bit of good if the Department of Defense is headed by the likes of Pete Hegseth. And Kristi Noem? Homeland Security? Please. It isn’t just that she doesn’t understand Habeas Corpus. FEMA is being allowed to rot. Even red states like Arkansas and Missouri are waiting for help from FEMA after recent tornado disasters. Without FEMA, a bad hurricane season could wipe out several of the bright red states that border the Gulf OF MEXICO and the Atlantic. However, Noem found $200 million in DHS’s budget to produce television ads thanking Trump for securing the border.
This just in — the Department of Defense has just accepted the “gift” of a massive white elephant luxury jet plane from Qatar that Trump can use in place of Air Force One as soon as it’s modified — which could cost as much $1 billion, more than twice the plane’s reported value, and take years to complete, NBC News reported. But we can kiss off FEMA responding to tornado damage. And do we want to talk about the freaking parade? Note that there’s now a lot of reporting saying that Qatar didn’t really want to offer the plane as a gift, but proposed leasing it to Trump if he liked it.
Paul Krugman writes that we may be about to have a Liz Truss moment. Liz Truss was the recent British prime minister whose tenure was cut very short by her bad handling of the economy. Do read the piece; it explains all the ways the U.S. economy is getting the legs kicked out from under it by Trump’s stupid policies. Trump apparently still believes that tariffs and the Laffer Curve will flood the U.S. with money. But nobody who doesn’t depend on Trump for their careers agrees with him. And I take it Fox News viewers are still being told everything is just fine and Trump’s plans will work.
And Yes, I just put in a phone call to my rep, Mike Lawler, to tell him he’d better not vote for it.
In other news: The President of South Africa visited the Oval Office today and got the Zelensky treatment. Trump ambushed the guy with a propaganda video claiming white genocide in South Africa, This is bogus, of course.
I think the Trump administration has decided that "illegal" means "a pardon, or failed impeachment vote" and aren't worrying about it.
I've heard various stories about the plane. The big one, is, if you want to keep it flying, you need to do regular maintenance, and that's expensive for something that's, basically, a giant toy. I've heard they were going to offer it for sale, then got strong armed into making it a gift, but I hadn't heard the "they might have leased it." I assumed leasing would be off the table because of the modifications that needed to happen.
I wonder if Trump really is stupid enough to think it would be safe to fly on that plane, without it being inspected and modified. I've heard the big problem with AF1 is, there aren't enough of the right engineers at Boeing with the right security clearances to do the work to modify the current two candidates. Well, that tells you that the Qatar plane is dumb, because it would be even further behind schedule, having to start from scratch.
Which, again, raises the question: is he *that* stupid, that his brain can't encompass that, and he can't imagine the risks clearly enough, that he'd get on a plane that a foreign government would bug every which way but loose, assuming they didn't sabotage it instead.
The big beautiful bill has passed out of the rules committee…
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5313061-house-rules-committee-advances-trump-agenda-bill/?tbref=hp
4.565% today on the ten-year T-note. The thirty year one is making the news more today with rates over 5%. I know this is not a typical cause but the GOP of old has checked out. They have passed the Big Bankruptcy Bill with huge negative Robin Hood effect, robbing from the poor to give to the rich. They are giving out a baby bonus for having more children to lay the massive debt upon.
NYT headlines article on Shuddering Bond Market with grim facts and a bleak prognosis:
This is a bad buy, a real reason for buyer's remorse for the citizens of the United States. Add in a real hit to planet earth and its future too. Have we hit rock bottom yet?
"The GOP’s budget bill would automatically trigger over $500 billion in automatic cuts to Medicare"
Stump will say the big beautiful bill didn't cut medicare the cuts were triggered because of the way (insert democratic policy here) designed the benefits. They know exactly what they are doing and they are not insane they just don't give a fuck. They know that they have a massive media propaganda machine that will hide the truth. The GOP is going to lose the house no matter what in 26 so why not screw the poor's and give it all to their rich donors, it's the republican way. Besides Stump will have at least another hundred or so scandals in the meantime so this will be out of the news in weeks.